Standings, form & a Poisson match predictor · full-season data precomputed on the server · refreshes every hour
Standings
Recent results
Most recent finished matches.
Current form (last 5)
Newest on the left. W win · D draw · L loss.
Predicted matches by round
Every scheduled match with its model prediction — no need to pick teams. Poisson goal model built from this season's results (attack & defense strength vs the league, plus home-field advantage & away-travel fatigue). Estimates only · auto-refreshes hourly.
Model track record — prior seasons
Out-of-sample walk-forward accuracy for past seasons, so you can see how well this model has actually predicted before. Each season is graded on its own finished matches; the model never sees a game it grades.
Loading prior-season records…
Or predict a custom matchup
Match Visualizer
Pick any fixture — already played or upcoming. Finished games show both starting XIs on the pitch, a minute-by-minute event timeline, and shot totals (all from ESPN's free feed). Every game also gets a model-predicted win/draw/loss card. Per-shot xG isn't published in the free feed, so the shot panel shows honest team totals, not fabricated expected-goals coordinates.
How accurate are the predictions?
A walk-forward backtest: every finished match this season is predicted using only the matches played before it — the model never sees the result it's grading. The pick is the most likely of home win / draw / away win. This is the same honesty rule used on the MLB page: every number here is out-of-sample.
Player value & squad analysis
Real per-player season statistics from ESPN (no third-party API key), valued by role. Metrics are per appearance. ESPN exposes attacking output, discipline and goalkeeping — but not minutes, tackles or passes — so each value blends that honestly measurable output with real playing-time (appearances & starts), position-weighted, and normalised across the whole league — so a defender or keeper trusted to play every week rates fairly even without goals. Percentiles are relative to this squad. Talisman/fit reads are labeled where heuristic.
Squad
Player value ranking
Form (0–10) and My model (0–100 bar) are both computed by us from ESPN's real per-appearance stats — goals, assists, shots, shots on target, fouls won/committed, cards, offsides, and (for keepers) saves & goals conceded — role-weighted and league-normalized so 80 means the same on any team. Sorted by My model. Click a player for a full per-appearance breakdown with squad percentiles. Note: ESPN's free feed publishes no passing, tackling, dribbling or distance-covered data, so those aren't shown — every number here is derived only from what ESPN actually measures.
Player detail
Transfer fit & chemistry (heuristic)
How well would a player slot into another squad? This is a structural heuristic (role match + whether he'd upgrade that team's current players in his position), not a measure of real on-pitch chemistry. Load both squads first.
Teams
Clubs in the league this season.
💬 Bulletin Board
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